3 min readMumbaiUpdated: Jul 14, 2026 04:41 PM IST
Mumbai is in the middle of a brief monsoon break after days of relentless rain followed by sweltering heat. While the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has not forecast any heavy rainfall in Mumbai today or over the coming days, moderate showers are expected to return from Saturday, July 18, bringing relief in the dry weather.
When will it rain in Mumbai again?
According to the IMD, Mumbai is likely to witness only isolated spells of light drizzle over the next few days. Rain activity is expected to gradually pick up from July 18, bringing moderate showers and generally cloudy skies.
However, heavy rainfall similar to the ones that lashed the city during the first week of July is unlikely until the end of the month, weather observers said.
Why has the rain in Mumbai stopped?
Despite the current dry spell, Mumbai has already received 1,147 mm of rain this July, which is well above the city’s average July rainfall of around 920 mm in the suburbs. After the intense rainfall between July 1 and July 8, rain activity has reduced sharply, with both the island city and suburban observatories recording 0 mm rainfall between Sunday and Tuesday morning.
According to meteorologists, the current lull is the result of multiple weather factors coming together, including a monsoon break, the absence of active weather systems and the influence of El Niño.
Athreya Shetty, an independent weather forecaster, told The Indian Express that El Niño, the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) and dry winds from Central Asia are suppressing cloud formation over the region. “El Niño as well as the MJO have essentially suppressed any kind of cloud formation at the moment. Besides this, we are also receiving a lot of dry winds from Central Asia,” Shetty said.
Meteorologists also attributed the dry spell to the absence of active monsoon systems such as cyclonic circulations and troughs, which normally draw moisture over the region and trigger widespread rainfall.
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Will Mumbai see another spell of heavy rain?
For now, weather experts do not expect a repeat of the intense rainfall recorded during the first week of July. While moderate showers are likely to return over the weekend, no heavy rainfall has been forecast for Mumbai until the end of July.
