As concerns grow over the possibility of a below-normal monsoon this year, northern India’s reservoirs are entering the crucial pre-monsoon phase in a relatively comfortable position. The latest reservoir storage bulletin released by the Central Water Commission (CWC) on May 14 shows that dams across Himachal Pradesh, Punjab and Rajasthan are holding significantly more water than both last year and the long-period average for this time of the year.
Yet, beneath the encouraging situation lies a more complex picture — one that combines stronger storage buffers with emerging signs of seasonal stress and the uncertainties of an increasingly volatile monsoon system.
Across India, the 166 major reservoirs monitored by the CWC currently hold 63.232 BCM (billion cubic metres) of live storage, which is 34.45 per cent of their total capacity. Nationally, storage levels are comfortably above last year’s 56.002 BCM and also higher than the normal storage benchmark of 51.052 BCM for the corresponding period. In percentage terms, India’s reservoirs are operating at nearly 124 per cent of normal storage levels.
The northern region has performed even better than the national average. The 11 reservoirs monitored in Himachal Pradesh, Punjab and Rajasthan together currently hold 8.206 BCM of water against a live storage capacity of 19.836 BCM. This translates to 41.37 per cent storage — far higher than the 28.14 per cent recorded during the same period last year and substantially above the normal storage level of 30.01 per cent.
Stronger reservoir cushion ahead of Monsoon
The improved reservoir position comes at a strategically important moment. Weather agencies and climate experts have warned that El Niño conditions could weaken or disrupt the southwest monsoon this year, raising concerns over uneven rainfall, delayed onset and prolonged dry spells during the kharif season. For northern India, where agriculture, hydropower generation and drinking water systems are deeply dependent on reservoirs, the current storage cushion could prove critical in absorbing early monsoon shocks.
Himachal Pradesh, in particular, has seen a strong recovery in reservoir levels. The state’s three major reservoirs — Gobind Sagar, Pong Dam and Kol Dam — together currently hold 4.325 BCM of water, or 34.67 per cent of their live capacity. This is more than double the storage level recorded during the same period last year, when reservoirs were operating at only 16.72 per cent capacity.
Gobind Sagar, one of the most important reservoirs in northern India because of its role in irrigation and hydropower generation, is currently at 31.87 per cent capacity, compared with 21.42 per cent last year. Pong Dam too has recorded a sharp rise, climbing to 36.85 per cent from just 11.71 per cent a year ago. The standout performer, however, is Kol Dam, which is operating at over 80 per cent capacity — significantly above both last year’s level and the normal average.
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Punjab presents perhaps the strongest storage position in the northern region. Thein Dam, the state’s lone monitored reservoir, currently stands at nearly 67 per cent capacity, compared with 35.92 per cent last year. Given Punjab’s dependence on canal irrigation and the increasing pressure on groundwater reserves, the healthy reservoir position could help moderate irrigation stress during the early kharif sowing season if rainfall remains erratic.
Rajasthan’s picture is more mixed but still broadly reassuring. The state’s seven monitored reservoirs together are operating at 46.1 per cent capacity, lower than last year’s exceptionally high 52.88 per cent, but comfortably above the normal storage level of 37.87 per cent.
Some reservoirs are performing particularly well. Bisalpur Dam, a critical drinking water source for Jaipur and adjoining areas, is currently over 74% full — significantly above both last year and normal storage levels. Som Kamla Amba reservoir too remains in a healthy position. However, reservoirs such as Rana Pratap Sagar have seen notable declines compared with last year, underlining the uneven nature of water availability across the region.
Signs of seasonal stress emerging
The latest weekly data also introduces an important note of caution. While overall storage remains healthy, northern reservoirs collectively witnessed a decline of 0.147 BCM over the past week. Himachal Pradesh alone accounted for a drawdown of 0.096 BCM, while Rajasthan lost 0.051 BCM. Punjab’s storage remained stable.
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Such declines are not unusual during May, when rising temperatures, higher evaporation rates and increasing irrigation demand begin exerting pressure on reservoirs before monsoon rains arrive. But in a year already clouded by fears of below-normal rainfall, the pace of depletion will be closely watched over the coming weeks.
The current storage position therefore offers both reassurance and warning. Reservoirs across northern India are undoubtedly in a stronger position than they were a year ago, giving authorities greater operational flexibility in managing irrigation releases, hydropower generation and drinking water supply. At the same time, the steady pre-monsoon drawdown highlights how quickly the situation could tighten if monsoon rainfall falters or becomes uneven.
An expert in CWC told The Indian Express that in many ways, the northern reservoir story reflects India’s broader climate reality. Higher storage levels provide an important safety net, but they are not a guarantee against future stress. Much will now depend on how the monsoon behaves over the next three months — not just in terms of total rainfall, but in its timing, distribution and intensity, the official added.
