Messi missed, as did Mbappe: what’s behind legends fluffing penalties this WC

And to think, Argentina’s Emiliano Martinez hasn’t even faced one yet.

The 2026 World Cup has not been a very productive tournament for penalty takers. The 12-yard distance has turned treacherous.

Of the 61 penalties taken, 21 – more than a third – have not been converted, either through a save or a miss. That’s a success rate of less than 66 per cent, far lower than the overall average of 81 per cent, before this tournament, as quoted by Geir Jordet, author of ‘Penalties’ writing in The New York Times.

In 90 minutes plus extra time, 21 penalties have seen six misses.

Penalty shootouts in World Cups averaged 69 per cent conversions since the 1982 edition, but the number has dipped by 7 per cent to 25 converted out of 40. It’s a far cry from the 78 percent overall success rate at the 2010 edition in South Africa.

“I don’t think it’s a coincidence. Penalty-taking has become much more predictable than it was years ago,” notes iconic German goalkeeper Oliver Kahn.

Kylian Mbappe misses a penalty during the World Cup 2026. (AP photo)

With his cap and stern visage, Kahn was quite a formidable barrier in his day. But a penalty was considered a near-goal and ‘keepers went in knowing they were at a big disadvantage.

Not any more.

“That’s because today every penalty-taker has a detailed profile. Goalkeepers know the perfect corner, the run-up, the body position and even how a player reacts under pressure,” Kahn, an expert on ZEE5, says.

Earlier, goalkeepers had to rely on their antics and anticipation. They watched eyes, head tilts, micro-movements of hips and the planted foot to judge the direction of the kick. But it was all guesswork.

Data on penalties began to be compiled in the 1990s, and patterns of penalty-takers are pored over more thoroughly than ever before.

Bounou has been outstanding with his combination of reflexes and reactions in penalty situations – beaten only twice in the nine he faced. While the three misses had theatrics, the four saves pointed to elite goal-guarding instincts.

“Goalkeepers are preparing much more systematically. They work with video analysts, data specialists and dedicated goalkeeping coaches who study hundreds of penalties before a tournament,” Kahn informs.

The German says a big reason for big names fluffing penalties is the enormous burden on their shoulders. “Pressure at World Cups is different than in other tournaments. Players know one missed penalty can define their whole career,” he says. “That psychological pressure often leads to hesitation and bad decision-making. And hesitation is exactly what goalkeepers are looking for.”

It might explain why Messi, who has converted seven of nine in shootouts, tends to be shabby in regular time, or why Mbappe ended up with a low, weak shot.

Games ‘keepers play

Geir quoted research saying that distracting methods by goalkeepers can bring down conversion rates by 10 per cent. Norwegian Orjan Nyland neutralised Brazil’s Bruno Guimaraes, and despite Neymar’s late penalty, the five-time champs wobbled out.

Faked disruptive movements are all the rage, and Geir notes that manipulative goalkeepers have let in 58 percent conversions, while the conventional silent ones were beaten 79 per cent of the time.

Lionel Messi misses a penalty against Egypt in the 2026 World Cup. (AP photo)

“Penalties are no longer just about technique. They have become a battle of preparation, psychology and decision- making. But every goalkeeper relies on gut feeling,” Kahn reflects.

Some like Martinez are personalities relying on the chirp. Like his famous tapping of Bruno Fernandes in an Aston Villa-Manchester United game where he asked the Portuguese why Cristiano Ronaldo wasn’t taking the shot. He’s 12/24 for Argentina, stopping an astounding 50 per cent with his wiles.

“I remember, years ago a penalty was often considered a certain goal. Today, goalkeepers arrive at major tournaments with an enormous amount of data. Footwork, patience, reading body language and delaying the dive are trained in incredible detail. Goalkeepers are much better athletes than they were 20 years ago,” Kahn notes.

He’s reluctant to conclude that the advantage has completely shifted to the goalkeeper.

“A perfectly-executed penalty is still almost impossible to save. The goalkeeper only has a chance to save if the taker makes a bad decision or has a weak shot. But the margin of error has become much smaller. If the taker is not fully convinced, if there’s the slightest hesitation, today’s elite goalkeepers are capable of punishing it immediately,” the German legend says of the psychological duel. “That’s why we are seeing more saves at this World Cup.”