DEHRADUN: Following a record 100% deficit in rainfall and snowfall in Dec in Uttarakhand, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has predicted below-normal winter precipitation for the state and other Himalayan regions. According to IMD’s latest seasonal outlook released on Monday, precipitation from Jan to March is likely to remain below normal across much of northwest India, including Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh and Jammu & Kashmir–Ladakh.IMD said seasonal rainfall over most parts of northwest India during this period is expected to be below 86% of the long-period average (LPA). The forecast is significant for the western Himalayas, where winter rain and snowfall are crucial for snowpack formation, river sustenance, and downstream agriculture and hydropower generation.
“IMD’s seasonal outlook for Jan to March indicates a rainfall deficit in Uttarakhand, following an unusually dry Dec,” a senior scientist at the Dehradun regional meteorological centre said. Experts attributed last month’s dry spell to the prolonged absence of western disturbances—low-pressure systems that typically bring winter precipitation to north India—and warned that the trend is unlikely to be a one-off anomaly, instead reflecting a multi-year shift in winter precipitation patterns across the western Himalayas.This has serious implications for the region. IMD data shows that northwest India—including east and west Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Haryana, Punjab, Himachal Pradesh, Jammu & Kashmir and Ladakh—receives about 18% of its annual rainfall during the Jan–March period. In Jammu & Kashmir and Ladakh, winter precipitation accounts for nearly 31% of annual rainfall. The season is crucial not only for snow accumulation in the higher reaches but also for rabi crops and water management across the region.IMD said there could be some relief in Jan, with monthly rainfall across north India, including Uttarakhand, forecast to fall within the normal range of 78–122% of LPA. Meteorologists, however, cautioned that a single normal month may not be sufficient to offset an overall seasonal deficit, particularly if snowfall remains limited to higher elevations.The seasonal outlook also indicates that minimum temperatures in Jan are likely to be below normal across most parts of the country. However, parts of northwest India, along with north-eastern India and the southern peninsula, may experience normal to above-normal minimum temperatures, which could further limit snowfall at lower elevations.Experts warned that a dry winter could have cascading effects on water availability, agriculture, hydropower generation and winter tourism in Himalayan states, especially if snowfall deficits persist into late winter and early spring.
