Gold price prediction today: Gold prices continue to trade on a weak note as geopolitical developments keep investors wary, says Manav Modi, Senior Analyst, Commodity Research at Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd.Gold prices remained under pressure for the entire previous week and started this week hovering around $4000 as markets continue to assess the impact of escalating US-Iran tensions on inflation and the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook. Renewed attacks on oil infrastructure and commercial vessels in the Middle East, along with heightened uncertainty surrounding the Strait of Hormuz, have pushed crude oil prices higher, reviving concerns that energy-driven inflation could slow the recent disinflation trend. Although recent US consumer inflation, producer inflation and retail sales data pointed to moderating underlying economic activity, investors remain cautious that sustained strength in oil prices could keep inflation elevated and reinforce expectations of a higher-for-longer interest rate environment. Comments from Federal Reserve officials, including Chair Kevin Warsh, Governor Christopher Waller and New York Fed President John Williams, highlighted that policymakers remain focused on inflation risks and require further evidence of sustained price moderation before considering policy easing. Consequently, the US dollar and Treasury yields have remained firm, limiting the appeal of non-yielding assets such as gold despite ongoing geopolitical uncertainty. Meanwhile, the People’s Bank of China left its benchmark Loan Prime Rates unchanged, as expected. Investors will now closely monitor preliminary manufacturing and services PMI data from major economies, the European Central Bank’s policy decision, and developments in the Middle East for fresh direction. The trajectory of crude oil prices, US Treasury yields and the US dollar is likely to remain the key driver of gold prices in the near term, while any further escalation in geopolitical tensions could increase market volatility.
Gold Technical Outlook:
Gold continues to trade with a weak undertone as prices remain below the 20-day moving average, indicating that sellers continue to dominate the near-term trend. Although, bullion has managed to stabilize above the lower Bollinger Band, recovery remains limited and every bounce is witnessing selling pressure. Broader price structure continues to reflect a corrective phase, and gold will need to regain key resistance levels to signal a meaningful improvement in sentiment during the week.From the Bollinger Bands perspective, the 20-day moving average (middle band) is placed at Rs 143,473, while the upper band stands at Rs 147,760 and the lower band at Rs 139,186. Gold is currently trading below the middle band but holding above the lower band, suggesting that prices remain within an important support zone. A sustained move above Rs 143,500 could improve the outlook and pave the way towards Rs 147,800, while a break below Rs 139,200 may invite fresh selling pressure.The Fibonacci retracement drawn from the major swing low near Rs 97,000 to the record high around Rs 179,000 places the 23.6% retracement near Rs 159,700, 38.2% around Rs 147,700, 50% near Rs 138,000, and 61.8% close to Rs 128,300. Gold is currently trading between the 38.2% and 50% retracement levels, making this an important decision zone. Holding above Rs 138,000 could support a recovery, while a sustained break below this level may extend the corrective decline.Technically, gold continues to trade within a descending channel, reflecting a persistent short-term downtrend. Immediate support is seen at Rs 140,000–139,200, followed by Rs 138,000 and Rs 135,000. On the upside, Rs 143,500 remains the first resistance, followed by Rs 147,700–147,800 and Rs 152,000. Overall, the outlook remains sideways to lower , with Rs 139,200–140,000 expected to be the key support zone and Rs 143,500, first hurdle for any sustained recovery.
Gold: Important Levels for the Week
Resistance
- R1: Rs 143,500
- R2: Rs 147,700–147,800
- R3: Rs 152,000
Support
- S1: Rs 140,000–139,200
- S2: Rs 138,000
- S3: Rs 135,000
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