China’s trade stepped up pace in April, with exports surging well beyond expectations even as the Iran war and elevated US tariffs continued to cast uncertainty over global markets.Official data released on Saturday showed Chinese exports climbed 14.1% compared with a year earlier, a substantial jump from March’s 2.5% rise and a performance that outpaced analyst forecasts. Imports also posted strong gains, increasing 25.3%, although that was slightly below the 27.8% growth recorded the previous month.
The stronger trade figures arrive just days before US President Donald Trump is scheduled to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing next week, at a time when diplomatic priorities are increasingly shaped by efforts to end the Iran war.The summit comes amid broader tensions between Washington and Beijing, where longstanding disputes over trade restrictions, rare earth controls and US curbs on Chinese technology are expected to remain under discussion.“We’re expecting that overall external demand will remain a solid driver of growth this year,” said Lynn Song, chief economist for Greater China at Dutch bank ING, likely led by China’s exports of semiconductors and autos.China’s export sector has continued to underpin its wider economy, particularly as shipments to Europe, Southeast Asia, Latin America and Africa expanded over recent months. In March, Beijing set its annual economic growth goal at 4.5% to 5%, below last year’s 5% pace and its most modest target since 1991.Although sweeping changes on export controls are not anticipated from the Trump-Xi meeting, HSBC economists said in a recent research note that the talks could still yield “incremental” measures aimed at easing trade tensions.“On balance, China looks to have more leverage,” wrote Leah Fahy, senior China economist of Capital Economics, in a note. “But higher tariffs haven’t stopped China’s exports from continuing to surge over the past year, and Beijing has showed that it is prepared to wait out US pressure.”The Iran war is also creating economic pressures for China by lifting oil and fuel prices, increasing manufacturing and logistics costs for its industrial base, according to Wei Li, head of multi-asset investments at BNP Paribas Securities (China). Rising inflation globally could also reduce spending power in China’s foreign consumer markets.So far, the country has weathered these pressures better than many economies, helped by sizeable oil reserves and a more varied energy supply network.
