NEW DELHI: Axis My India and Today’s Chanakya on Wednesday forecast a sweeping return for chief minister Nitish Kumar-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA), with the opposition Mahagathbandhan projected to fall short of the majority mark in the Bihar elections.While the Axis My India, despite giving a majority to the ruling camp, predicted a close range gap between the NDA and Mahagathbandhan, Today’s Chanakya figures showed that the opposition camp may not cross 100 seats in the 243-seat Bihar assembly contest.
Aixs My India (AIM) predicted 121-141 seats for the NDA with 43%vote share, and 98-118 seats for the RJD-led Mahagathbandhan with 41% vote share. Prashant Kishore’s Jan Suraaj is likely to win 0-2 seats, according to AMI.
Region-wise seat predictions by AMI
Seat-wise division
Region-wise vote share predictions by AMI
Vote share-wise division
Today’s Chanakya has given 160 seats to the NDA (+/-12) with 44% vote share (+/-3%), and the Mahagathbandhan 77 seats (+/-13) with 38% votes (+/-3%).
What’s the poll of polls?
A poll of polls on Tuesday indicated a likely return of the NDA to power, with the alliance expected to secure around 148 seats. The RJD-led Mahagathbandhan, despite campaigning as the agent of change, is projected to fall short, with estimates placing it at around 88 seats. The others are expected to win 7 seats according to the polls of polls.The People’s Pulse exit poll estimates the NDA at 133–159 seats, the Mahagathbandhan at 75–101, Jan Suraaj at 0–5, and other parties at 2–8 seats.The Dainik Bhaskar poll suggests the NDA could secure 145–160 seats, while the Mahagathbandhan may end up with 73–91. It also predicted that Jan Suraaj may not open its account, and other parties and independents could win 5–10 seats.According to the JVC-Polls, the NDA is projected to win 135–150 seats, the Mahagathbandhan 88–103, and others 3–6 seats.Matrize predicted 147-167 seats for the NDA and 70-90 seats for the opposition Mahagathbandhan. It has an estimated 2-10 seats for others.People’s Insight forecasts 133–148 seats for the NDA and 87–102 for the Mahagathbandhan, while others are expected to win 3–6 seats. Bihar recorded a voter turnout of 68.52 per cent in the second phase of the assembly elections as of 5 pm on Tuesday, according to the Election Commission. The polling took place across 122 constituencies.
Record voting in Bihar
The first phase of polling had recorded 65.08 per cent turnout. All major political blocs have claimed that the high participation reflects support in their favour.The main contest in the 2025 Bihar Assembly election is between the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) and the Mahagathbandhan.In the 2020 election, polling was held in three phases. The NDA won 125 seats while the Mahagathbandhan secured 110. Among major parties, the JD(U) won 43 seats and the BJP 74, while the RJD secured 75 seats and the Congress 19.
