4 min readJul 23, 2026 05:33 PM IST
First published on: Jul 23, 2026 at 05:33 PM IST
On July 22, a press release by the US Department of Energy announced that Secretary of Energy Chris Wright and Saudi Minister of Energy Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman had signed a peaceful nuclear cooperation agreement — commonly known as a 123 agreement — and an accompanying bilateral safeguards agreement. Apart from describing them as “legal foundation for a decades-long, multi-billion-dollar partnership that advances several priority economic and strategic objectives, including nuclear nonproliferation,” the press release said that the agreement would also “advance American and regional security by upholding high standards of nuclear safety, security, and nonproliferation.”
Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MbS) has often spoken about working to develop nuclear weapons if Iran was not prevented from getting them. Some experts may interpret the 123 agreement as a long-term “enabler” for Riyadh to pursue this goal. Given that the US-Israel war on Iran is being fought on a core point of preventing the latter from building nuclear weapons, does it add fuel to the fire or signal a reworking of the US role in the security architecture of the region?
Long before “limited” US military action against Iranian nuclear facilities at Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan during the 12-day Israel-Iran conflict in June 2025, Saudi Arabia had been taking concrete steps to build its civil nuclear programme. In 2017, it approved a National Project for Atomic Energy, which included plans for building large and small nuclear reactors. A signatory to the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) since 1988, Saudi Arabia has, since then, made agreements to observe some of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) safeguards, though limited in scope. On September 17, 2025, Saudi Arabia also signed a Strategic Mutual Defence Agreement with Pakistan.
Since then, the US seemed to have fast-tracked efforts to sign the 123 agreement. As a result, during MbS’s November 2025 visit to the US, the two sides signed a “Joint Declaration on the Completion of Negotiations on Civil Nuclear Energy Cooperation”, which, the White House said “builds the legal foundation for a decades-long, multi-billion-dollar nuclear energy partnership… confirms that the United States and American companies will be the Kingdom’s civil nuclear cooperation partners of choice; and ensures that all cooperation will be conducted in a manner consistent with strong nonproliferation standards.” This set in motion the framework for the 123 agreement.
It appears that, for years, Saudi Arabia had been moving as well as posturing towards a civil nuclear programme with or without the agreement with the US. In recent years, its bilateral relations with China, a possible competitor, have improved so significantly that Beijing brokered a rapprochement between Saudi and Iran in March 2023. This may be one of the compelling reasons for signing the 123 deal sooner rather than later.
However, the current state of the US-Iran war has created serious constraints in resolving the Iranian nuclear issue. The dangerous and currently escalating tug of war over the Strait of Hormuz is unlikely to end any time soon. Without any amicable resolution over the Strait, US-Iran nuclear talks will remain in limbo.
The 123 agreement does not, per se, enable Saudi Arabia to develop nuclear weapons. It reportedly presents a “US-controlled and monitored enrichment model” to Iran and to other Arab states. The press release stresses that the 123 partnership will “expand American nuclear technology exports, create high-paying US jobs and long-term economic growth, and strengthen America’s energy and national security posture”. Thus, the model “sells” the idea of bringing billions of dollars to the American nuclear and allied industries, while assuaging the concerns of non-proliferation advocates and the “hawks”.
Once cleared by Congress, the 123 model could be offered to Iran during nuclear negotiations. Iran sees the right to enrichment as an absolute sovereign right that it won’t give up. The intentions behind the move may or may not work with Iran, as the situation is volatile. However, the deal signals that the idea of a US security umbrella in support of a potential Israeli-Arab accord against the “common threat of Iran” is no longer on the table.
Gupta is a security analyst and former director general of police
