The expanded 48-team World Cup has changed the dynamics of the group stage. Gone are the days when finishing outside the top two automatically meant elimination. In the new format, the top two teams from each of the 12 groups are joined by the eight best third-placed teams, meaning two-thirds of the field will reach the knockout rounds.
As the group stage enters the final matchday, the race for those eight third-place spots is beginning to take shape. Four points should be enough for most teams. Three points may still be sufficient, but only with a favourable goal difference and goals-scored record.
Scotland, Croatia and Sweden are well placed
If there is a group of teams sitting comfortably ahead of the final round, Scotland, Croatia and Sweden belong in it. Scotland sit third in Group C with three points and a neutral goal difference. They face Brazil knowing that a draw would take them to four points and leave them in an excellent position to qualify, even if they remain third. Victory could yet send them into the automatic qualification places.
Croatia find themselves in a similarly encouraging position. They are third in Group L on three points and face Ghana in a direct battle for qualification. A win would almost certainly take them through, while a draw would leave them on four points — a total that has historically been enough for third-placed teams in major tournaments.
Sweden are another side whose destiny remains firmly in their own hands. Third in Group F with three points, they meet Japan in their final match. A draw would probably be enough to keep them among the strongest third-placed teams, while a win could propel them into the top two.
Australia, Paraguay and a Group D knockout tie
Few groups are as neatly poised as Group D. Australia and Paraguay both have three points and meet in the final round. The winner will almost certainly advance and may yet finish second depending on the outcome of the United States-Turkey match.
Even a draw could be enough for Australia, who would move to four points. Paraguay would also remain alive on four points, although their inferior goal difference means they would likely spend the evening watching scoreboards elsewhere.
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Unlike many teams in the third-place race, both still control their own fate.
Belgium and Cape Verde remain in control
Belgium’s campaign has yet to truly ignite, but the Red Devils are far from trouble. Two draws from two matches have left them third in Group G on two points. Victory over New Zealand would move them to five points and guarantee a place among the best third-placed teams, if not the top two.
Cape Verde occupy a similar position in Group H. Their two draws have left them on two points heading into a decisive meeting with Saudi Arabia. A win would take them to five points and almost certainly into the knockout rounds. A draw would leave them on three points and vulnerable to results elsewhere.
Czechia, Bosnia and Ecuador need one big result
The teams sitting on one point have reached the stage where calculations matter less than victories.
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Czechia must find a result against group leaders Mexico. Four points would leave them with a realistic chance of advancing, while anything less would probably end their hopes.
Bosnia and Herzegovina face Qatar in one of the tournament’s most consequential lower-table clashes. Both teams have one point and both know that victory would move them into genuine contention for a third-place berth.
Ecuador arguably face the toughest task of all. They are third in Group E with one point but must take something from a final game against Germany, who have already won their first two matches. Four points would keep Ecuador alive. Anything else is unlikely to be enough.
DR Congo and Saudi Arabia fall into the same category. Both can still reach four points, but neither has room for a mistake.
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Senegal, Turkey need a miracle
The picture is much bleaker for teams still stranded on zero points.
Senegal, Iraq, Jordan, Uzbekistan, Tunisia, Haiti, Turkey and Panama can finish with a maximum of three points. That does not eliminate them mathematically, but it leaves them relying on a highly unlikely combination of results elsewhere.
