In BNP’s return, an opportunity for Tarique Rahman to repair Bangladesh and a chance for Delhi-Dhaka reset

Eighteen months after Sheikh Hasina’s ouster and exile to India, Bangladesh has a popular government. The sweeping victory of the Tarique Rahman-led Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) could bring much-needed stability to the country, especially because voters have also endorsed constitutional reforms in a referendum held along with the elections to Parliament. The high-stakes election was held amid rising extremism under Muhammad Yunus’s watch, a weakening economy, and deteriorating ties with India. The Jamaat-e-Islami, by all accounts one of the biggest gainers of the 2024 Gen-Z uprising, is a distant second. The fact that it does not have enough seats to shape governance should mitigate domestic and regional anxieties about the rise of radical forces. The decisive mandate, instead, suggests that the architecture of Dhaka’s politics, long defined by the Awami League-BNP duopoly, is intact — though the ban on the AL cast a shadow over the polls.

The new government will have its work cut out in containing extremism and protecting minorities, especially the Hindu community. The spokesperson of India’s MEA, Randhir Jaiswal, noted in December last year that more than 2,900 incidents of violence against minorities had been documented by independent sources during Yunus’s tenure. Rahman has pledged religious freedom and communal harmony but the true test will lie in enforcement. Equally critical is reconciliation. AL members have faced widespread violence after Hasina’s departure. There is no denying that the former PM was widely seen as an autocrat, and her highhandedness proved to be her downfall. But Rahman should realise that a winner-takes-all approach will harm democracy in Bangladesh. Its new leader would do well to see the merits of generosity and forge a consensus on the terms under which the AL can return to the political fold.

New Delhi is familiar with the BNP. Its new leader has struck a conciliatory note towards India, so far. Rahman spoke of the importance of stable ties during External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar’s visit to Dhaka for his mother Khaleda Zia’s funeral. Yet, recent developments — Mustafizur Rahman’s expulsion from the IPL, followed by Bangladesh’s exclusion from the T20 World Cup — have deepened tensions. Hasina’s extradition is bound to be a sticking point as well. At the same time, a change of guard in Dhaka is an opportunity for New Delhi to go beyond its longstanding ties with the AL. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has extended “warm congratulations” to Rahman. This could set the tone for a forward-looking and mutually beneficial partnership .