In 2018, the United States experienced its longest government shutdown in history, delaying $18 billion in federal spending and shaving 0.2% off the nation’s GDP. Less than seven years later, the US federal government is again in a shutdown, once more with Donald Trump at the helm.Nearly two days into current the shutdown, federal agencies have already begun preparing mass furloughs and possible layoffs. White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt warned that “layoffs were imminent,” while the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) put a hold on $18 billion of infrastructure funds for New York’s subway and Hudson Tunnel projects – both tied to Democratic leaders.With no funding resolution in sight, hundreds of thousands of federal workers face missed pay cheques, national parks and museums are closing their gates, and essential services risk being curtailed. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates that roughly 750,000 employees could be furloughed each day, amounting to $400 million in lost wages daily.
Poll
What do you think will happen if the government shutdown continues for an extended period?
Also read: How much the shutdown is costing US govt per day Democrats have refused to back a temporary funding bill without guarantees on health care subsidies, warning of a steep rise in insurance premiums if credits under the Affordable Care Act expire. Republicans, however, argue the subsidies can be debated later, with Vice President JD Vance insisting the focus should be on reopening government.
What happened in 2018–19?
The current crisis echoes the last major shutdown, which took place from December 2018 to January 2019 during Trump’s first term. That standoff, centred on funding for a wall along the US-Mexico border, stretched on for a record 35 days – the longest in American history.At the time, much of the government was partially shut because Congress had already passed some spending bills. Still, the effects were severe. Roughly 800,000 workers went without pay, services were suspended, and public confidence in Washington nosedived.The economic costs were steep. According to the CBO, the shutdown delayed around $18 billion in discretionary spending, shaved 0.2% off the country’s quarterly GDP, and permanently wiped out $3 billion in output. Beyond the numbers, it disrupted small businesses seeking loans, stalled federal permits, and forced families into debt as bills mounted without pay cheques.Public opinion largely blamed Trump. An AP-NORC poll at the time found that seven in ten Americans held him directly responsible for the closure. Under mounting political pressure, Trump eventually agreed to reopen government for three weeks. But he simultaneously declared a national emergency to redirect $8 billion in funds towards building his border wall, sparking legal and constitutional challenges.
Why stakes are higher this time
Unlike the previous shutdown consequences this time could be far more severe. While past shutdowns were temporary disruptions, the Trump administration appears prepared to use this crisis to permanently reshape the federal workforce. Agencies have been told to prepare for “reduction-in-force” notices effectively layoffs targeting programmes misaligned with the president’s priorities.The Trump administration is finalising plans for federal agency firings, with a list compiled by the Office of Management and Budget alongside targeted departments, CNN reported. Trump met with OMB Director Russell Vought to discuss which “Democrat agencies” to cut, potentially permanently. Some agencies are under review for their diversity and inclusion policies, but officials say the main focus is eliminating those that don’t align with Trump’s priorities or are seen as wasting taxpayer money.Also read: US govt shuts down – Why it’s more serious this timePosting on Truth Social, a platform he owns, Trump rallied republicans to use the “opportunity to clear out dead wood, waste, and fraud.”
This coupled with Levitt’s “imminent” layoffs warning shows that the Trump admin this time is not backing down.
What’s the road ahead?
This shutdown, broader in scope than 2018–19, risks being even more disruptive if neither side yields. Several scenarios could unfold:
- Democrats back down under pressure: Federal workers are a core Democratic constituency, and with furloughs mounting, party leaders may decide to accept a stopgap funding bill without securing health care subsidies. Though the base would be angered, Democrats could argue they spotlighted Republican health cuts while limiting further economic damage.
- Republicans make concessions: Republican leaders currently appear confident, but the public has historically held the party in power responsible for shutdowns. If the economic pain intensifies, Trump may be forced to guarantee extensions of Affordable Care Act subsidies, giving Democrats a partial win while Republicans preserve control of the broader budget.
- The standoff drags on for weeks: The longest shutdown ended only when air travel faced mass disruption. If this impasse continues, services across education, health, and infrastructure could grind to a halt. With both sides locked into partisan positions, public frustration could deepen, eroding trust in institutions and creating political backlash for incumbents of both parties.
- Eyes on 2026? Already, moderate Democrats in swing states are under pressure to switch sides, while Republicans risk overplaying their hand with aggressive cuts. If voters view both parties as responsible, disillusionment may fuel anti-establishment challengers in next year’s midterms.
As Speaker Mike Johnson warned: “The longer this goes on, the more pain will be inflicted, because it is inevitable when the government shuts down.”
Democrats under watch
For the bill to clear the filibuster, 60 votes are needed in the Senate. That requires at least seven Democrats to join Republicans if Senator Rand Paul maintains his opposition. Analysts say Democratic leaders are weighing the risks of prolonging the shutdown against anger from their base, many of whom want a tougher stance against Trump’s agenda. Several moderates and retiring senators, including Jeanne Shaheen, Dick Durbin and Gary Peters, are being closely watched. Shaheen has said she will oppose the measure unless ACA subsidies are addressed, while others remain undecided. Attention is also on Democrats from Trump-leaning states such as Mark Kelly, Elissa Slotkin and Jacky Rosen, who may come under pressure to flip if concessions are offered.(With inputs from agencies)
