NEW DELHI: Will the BJP and the Shiromani Akali Dal revive their decades-old ties in Punjab for the 2027 assembly elections? Haryana chief minister Nayab Singh Saini, who has been playing a key role in BJP’s Punjab plans, has ruled out any such possibility. His denial comes amid a strong alliance buzz triggered by a meeting between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) chief Sukhbir Singh Badal last week – the first such meeting after the two parties snapped ties 6 years ago over the 3 farm bills.BJP’s Saini has played down alliance rumours. When asked to comment on the meeting, Saini replied in Punjabi, “Nahi, aise koyi gall nahi hai (No, there is no such thing)”. The Haryana chief minister said the Prime Minister is the voice of 140 crore people. “If anyone wants to meet him, his doors are open; anyone can meet. Political parties keep meeting him for various issues.”Saini further added, “Bharatiya Janata Party ka gathbandhan Punjab di janta de naal hai. (BJP’s alliance is with the people of Punjab). And I say this with great confidence because I meet people there. In Punjab, the BJP is forming its government.”So, can Saini’s denial be taken at face value? Or is it just political rhetoric to keep pressure on a regional party which appears desperate for an alliance with the BJP?
SAD’s electoral decline
Sukhbir Singh Badal, who has served two terms as deputy chief minister of Punjab and whose father Parkash Singh Badal was a 5-time chief minister, has been struggling to make a political comeback in the state. In the last two assembly elections, his party, SAD, has been pushed to the margins.The decline began in the 2017 assembly elections, when the SAD won only 15 of the 94 seats it contested, with a vote share of 25.24%. This was a sharp decline compared to its 2012 performance when the SAD had won 56 seats with a vote share of 34.73%. If 2017 was a worry, 2022, after it snapped ties with the BJP and contested alone, was a clear warning: the SAD could win only 3 seats, and its vote share dipped to 18.38%.This decline was not limited to just assembly elections. In the Lok Sabha elections too, SAD suffered a decline. In 2019, the SAD polled 27.76% of votes and won 2 seats. Five years later, while the seat reduced to 1, the vote share dipped to 13.48%. In 2014, the SAD tally in Lok Sabha was 4 seats and a 26.37% vote share.Clearly, for Sukhbir Singh Badal, both the crisis and the test are real. And that perhaps explains his visible desperation for an alliance with the BJP. And while the saffron party may reject alliance rumours, the SAD has sent clear signals of a strategic shift — extending a friendly hand to the BJP.
BJP-SAD alliance lasted nearly two decades before the parties split over the farm laws in 2020
Badal’s changed tune on delimitation
In April this year, Badal had criticised the Centre’s move on delimitation of Lok Sabha seats in the garb of the Women’s Reservation Bill. “Punjab is predominantly a minority character state. We will be the biggest victim of this population-based delimitation. Compared with a nominal increase in seats for Punjab, Haryana will witness a nearly hundred per cent increase and double the number of its seats in the Lok Sabha,” Badal had then said in a statement.Four months later, the SAD chief has literally taken a U-turn on the issue. After his meeting with PM Modi, Badal changed his stand and demanded the immediate implementation of the Women’s Reservation Bill. He also supported the Union government’s proposal to increase Parliament seats in states by 50 per cent.In a new statement after his meeting with PM Modi, Badal said the party stood for a fair and equitable delimitation exercise that ensured equal increase in representation to all states. “This will ensure justice is done to all states,” he said.
‘Why so desperate for BJP alliance?’
Badal’s changed stand prompted a dig from Punjab Congress president Amarinder Singh Raja Warring, who asked the Shiromani Akali Dal chief as to why he was so desperate for an electoral alliance with the BJP that he had to make a U-turn on a sensitive matter like delimitation of the assembly and parliamentary constituencies.“What changed within these months that you started seeing merit in the same Bill, you otherwise found against Punjab’s interests?” he asked. “Sukhbir has turned more loyal than the king within no time,” Warring said.He said when the Akalis had failed to reach an alliance with the BJP ahead of the parliamentary elections, Badal had claimed that he did not want to compromise on the interests of Punjab. “Now that you are desperate for your own survival, you have simply forgotten the interests of Punjab for which you claimed to have taken a stand in 2024,” said Warring.Chief minister Bhagwant Mann also took potshots at Badal and said, “BJP can make them do whatever they want. SAD just wants to get back into the cabinet in Delhi or get into an alliance with the BJP in Punjab.”These reactions would suggest that both the ruling AAP and the Congress are perhaps aware how a potential BJP-Akali alliance could change the dynamics on ground. While they may play down the possible impact of this alliance, they would be keeping a close eye on the developments. AAP would hope that the 2027 Punjab contest stays four-cornered so that the ruling party can benefit from the division of opposition votes. The Congress, on the other hand, realises that SAD could help the BJP in rural areas and add to the party’s challenges in the state.Little wonder, Badal would not mind their political barbs as long as he can secure the future of his party with the BJP. And that brings us to Saini’s remark playing down the meeting between PM Modi and Sukhbir Badal.
Why SAD alliance can help BJP
For the BJP, the Akali association is electorally important, at least for now. The BJP has just two seats in the current assembly with a vote share of 6.6%. The party could not win a single seat in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections despite polling 18.65% of votes. This was almost double of the 9.74% that the BJP managed in 2019 Lok Sabha elections. It was also a huge jump from the 2022 assembly elections when the BJP got just 6.6% of votes. But the fact that BJP could win 2 Lok Sabha seats in 2019 despite a low vote share points to the importance of SAD alliance in converting votes to seats in the state.Despite the sharp decline in its electoral fortunes, the Shiromani Akali Dal still has good support base in rural Punjab and also has a strong Sikh-centric regional identity – both of which can help the BJP in case of an alliance. Combined with BJP’s urban support base, this can turn into a winning combination for the two parties. The SAD has been going all out to increase its base and presence in the state.The controversy around movie Satluj, which narrates the life story of activist Jaswant Singh Khalra – who uncovered alleged extrajudicial cremations in Punjab between mid-1980s and early-1990s, gave SAD the much-needed boost to woo its core voters. When the movie was taken down from the OTT platform, SAD arranged its screening across Punjab. In a post on X in Punjabi, Badal had then said, “In every village and corner of Punjab, the SAD will screen the film ‘Satluj’ based on inhuman atrocities inflicted on thousands of innocent Sikh youth and Sikh personalities like Shaheed Bhai Jaswant Singh Ji Khalra during the Congress regime, so that our children and future generations can be thoroughly acquainted with the oppression inflicted.“Badal had justified the move and said:”This is aimed at ensuring that today’s youth and our coming generations know about the unspeakable tragedy and repression unleashed by the then Congress governments against Bhai Jaswant Singh Khalra and thousands of other innocent Sikh youth who were eliminated through fake encounters.” The aggressive SAD campaign was clearly a move to consolidate its ‘Panthic’ vote bank – a political mobilisation surrounding the Sikh community’s collective identity.The SAD perhaps can complement the BJP if the two parties eventually agree for an alliance.
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BJP’s bid to dominate?
Hence, the BJP’s posturing vis-a-vis the SAD alliance at present perhaps has more to do with asserting who will dictate terms if and when the two parties join hands. And this is important as till 2020, when the partnership snapped, the SAD was the senior partner in Punjab’s NDA alliance and the BJP played second fiddle. That political dynamic has changed now. By repeatedly asserting that it will contest the Punjab elections on its own, the BJP has clearly spread the message that it will lead the fight and not play the junior partner to anyone. Hence, the saffron party would not want to miss any opportunity to reinforce this message to the SAD leadership and its cadres.True, the BJP is working on a roadmap to increase its political base and strength and become an independent political force in Punjab. This is manifested in the several steps that the party has taken in Punjab. From Prime Minister’s Punjab rallies to party chief Nitin Nabin’s push and targeted acquisition from political rivals, the BJP has made it clear that it means business in Punjab. But the party perhaps will need more time to do a Bengal in Punjab, if at all it ever happens. For now, SAD perhaps could be its best bet in Punjab.
