Iran’s Hormuz chokehold has reshaped India’s oil purchase pattern, with a sharp drop in Gulf supplies this month pushing refiners towards Russia and smaller producers to keep supplies steady. So far in March, crude imports into the country are down 23% compared to February, according to shipping data and analyst estimates cited by ET. The plunge comes as inflows from the Middle East have contracted significantly, with disruptions linked to the Strait of Hormuz adding to supply concerns. If the crisis continues, total imports for the month could decline by about a fifth sequentially.
Figures from Vortexa show India brought in 81 million barrels of crude between March 1 and 18, compared with 105 million barrels during the same period last month. The steepest fall has been in Middle Eastern supplies, which dropped to 22.4 million barrels from 59.9 million barrels earlier, Xavier Tang, senior market analyst at the firm told financial daily.With the Iran war intensifying and energy routes under strain, refiners have moved quickly to plug the gap. Purchases from Russia have nearly doubled, making it the largest supplier with 34.3 million barrels, around 44% of India’s total imports in the first half of the month, according to Kpler data.At the same time, cargoes from African nations have increased sharply. Angola shipped 7.5 million barrels during the period, a significant jump from 2.9 million barrels in all of February. Congo, Gabon and Sudan, not regular suppliers to India, added 1.9 million barrels, 1.7 million barrels and 700,000 barrels respectively.Flows from the United States have also softened, with about 3 million barrels arriving so far in March, nearly half of what was seen last month.From the Gulf, India has so far imported 7.9 million barrels from Saudi Arabia, 6.8 million barrels from Iraq and 1.9 million barrels from the UAE. However, Saudi shipments are expected to rise in the coming weeks. “We are seeing approximately 15-16 million barrels of crude loading from Saudi Arabia’s west coast to India this month,” said Nikhil Dubey, senior refining analyst at Kpler. “Of this, around 9 million barrels are already enroute and are expected to arrive within the next 6-7 days,” he said, adding that some deliveries may extend into April due to longer voyage times.Analysts caution that if disruptions at the Strait of Hormuz continue through March, overall imports could fall to between 115 million and 125 million barrels, below the usual monthly range of around 150 million barrels.Amid the tight supply scenario, there are indications that Iranian oil could re-enter the market. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has said Washington may allow crude already at sea to be sold, potentially opening the door for buyers such as India. Before sanctions halted the trade, Iranian oil accounted for roughly 10% of India’s crude inflows, with most of those volumes now heading to China.
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